US rebound signals IMF gloom may be overdone
The tentative US rebound comes as forward-looking indicators across the world suggest that a clutch of countries are poised to pick up momentum again, though dangers abound.
New jobless claims in the US fell last week to the lowest since the onset of Great Recession, while home foreclosures have dropped to levels last seen before the sub-prime crash.
A burst of monetary and fiscal stimulus has begun to reignite the kindling wood in Asia and Latin America. Goldman Sachs said its early warning signal or Global Leading Indicator for September has shifted into the “recovery phase”. Its US tracking indicator shows a jump in the economic growth rate last month to 2.4pc from just 0.5pc in August.
Meanwhile, worldwide PMI manufacturing indexes have risen for a second month. Korean exports – watched as a proxy for China – have bounced back after crashing in August, and Brazil is perking up after cutting interest rates to a record low of 7.25pc.
Bank of America said its global momentum indicators “all point to better news”, with signs that the worldwide run-down in inventories over the summer has run its course. Once restocking begins, it tends to act as a spring for recovery.
Good News Britain: Apprentices are the stars of the future
Apprentices, Local community projects, jobs,career opportunities…..ALL GOOD….WE NEED MORE
English: The economic growth of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, United Kingdom, Spain (PIIGGS) against the European Union and Eurozone 2005-2009. Data from Eurostat. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Adult apprenticeship stats ‘completely unacceptable’
The Government said the increase of almost 50,000 apprentice jobs compared with the 2010/11 academic year was a “momentous” achievement.
However, Barnado’s assistant director of policy Jonathan Rallings said it was “completely unacceptable” that over half of the apprenticeship placements – 55pc – were taken up by over-25s.
“The rise in apprenticeship figures appears encouraging but it is completely unacceptable that only 55pc go to young people under the age of 25.
Paul Tucker warns backlash to another bank bailout would be “uncontainable”
Mr Tucker, who is the favourite to take over as Governor next June, said it was in the industry’s own interests to set up so-called “living wills” that would help regulators manage a “speeded-up Chapter 11 [bankruptcy] and recapitalisation” programme that would protect taxpayers from another round of multi-billion pound bail-outs.
He also made a veiled attack on the concentration of power in Britain’s big four banks, saying that more operators and more competition would be better for financial stability and the economy.
At the peak of the recent crisis in 2009, the British taxpayer was on the hook for £1.16 trillion.
British Gas raises gas and electricity prices by 6pc
IN DEFENCE OF THEM !!! THEY DO STATE THAT THEY ONLY MAKE 5P ON EVERY POUND. THIS IS THEN REINVESTED INTO NEW PRODUCTS ETC…. good to know when we have fuel poverty in the United Kingdom!!!! Or is it people just prefer buying things and are prepared to sacrifice fuel????…Interesting Debate!!!
Debt crisis: Germany and IMF spar over crisis – live
Scottish independence: Why would Scotland turn itself into Greece?.…(Zynkin does not agree if the right people run things…that is the true question)
Bank of England frontrunner says QE not enough to get growth going
Osborne plan for tax-free shares faces Brussels fight
The IMF and the world: Unsteady as she goes
If you knew nothing of what had happened in the global economy over the past five years you would have found Christine Lagarde’s opening press conference at the World Bank and IMF meetings in Tokyo on Thursday morning distinctly peculiar.
Why? Because she was saying some quite scary things about the outlook for the world, but she didn’t sound like she wanted to raise the alarm. She sounded like it was pretty much business as usual.
Spain’s reluctance to ask for a bailout was justified, said Angel Gurria, the secretary general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), as there were signals that any calls for help by Madrid may be rejected.
“If you are the leader of a country that has done everything that had to be done, and then the ECB (European Central Bank), works on the secondary markets for you and lowers those yields and (yet) you are told that you have to go and ask for a (bailout) and you say ok, but then you’re given very strong signals that if you go, you will be told, ‘No’ how can you reconcile those two things,” Gurria told CNBC on the sidelines of the IMF’s semi-annual meetings in Tokyo.Spain’s government has been expected to seek help from the euro zone bailout fund the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), to help ease pressure on its finances and economy, which is in recession. However, Madrid has so far resisted because such assistance comes in return for fiscal reforms.
Germany, Europe’s biggest creditor country, has suggested Spain should hold off on asking for aid. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said earlier this month that Spain is taking the right steps to overcome its fiscal problems and did not need to ask for a bailout.
n the bond markets, Spanish debt is rallying a little – putting less pressure on Spain to apply for that bailout.
The yield on Spain’s 10-year bond is down 7 basis points (0.07%) to 5.71%. That will only embolden Madrid to resist asking for help.
TOKYO, Oct 11 — International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde today said struggling European countries such as Greece and Spain should be given more time to reduce their budget gaps.
Both economies are at the centre of the euro zone debt crisis, with Greece struggling to fulfill a debt-reduction programme and Spain inching towards seeking aid to handle its debts, having already obtained a 100-billion-euro credit line for its banks in June.
“Instead of frontloading heavily, it is sometimes better, given circumstances and the fact that many countries at the same time go through that same set of policies with a view to reducing their deficit, it is sometimes better to have a bit more time,” Lagarde said at a news conference in Tokyo.
“That is what I have advocated for Portugal, this is what I have advocated for Spain, and this is what we are advocating for Greece, where I said repeatedly that an additional two years was necessary for the country to actually face the fiscal consolidation programme that is considered.”
A report on the Greek programme from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF — known as the troika — is due in the next few weeks.
European officials said on Monday divergences had emerged inside the euro zone and with the IMF over how best to proceed, especially on whether Athens should obtain some respite in its deficit-cutting efforts.
Spain is also under pressure as the IMF, the Bank of Spain and many economists have said that the economic forecast the government used to build its budget plan for 2013 was too optimistic, putting the country at risk of missing its deficit targets.
The IMF forecast Spain’s economy would shrink 1.3 per cent next year, which compares with a forecast for a 0.5 per cent contraction used in next year’s budget.
Spain’s Economy Minister Luis de Guindos on Monday said Madrid would stick to its targets and was not planning any further cuts. The euro zone has already eased fiscal targets for Spain once this year.
On Monday, the euro zone gave Portugal one more year, until 2014, to get its budget deficit below the European Union ceiling of 3 per cent of gross domestic product. — Reuters
AT least we found one good story…well advert!!
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